Date: Thu, Oct. 19, 2006

Resource: Daily Herald

Dropout crisis in city emerges from researchHalf of 9th graders don't graduate on time. The economy may suffer.
By Martha Woodall
Inquirer Staff Writer

Only about half of the ninth graders in Philadelphia's public schools graduate in four years, and for some minority male students, the rate is even lower, according to a report being released today.

Researchers from Johns Hopkins University are calling it "Philadelphia's Dropout Crisis," and they say the social and financial consequences are grave not only for the 30,000 young people who dropped out between 2000 and 2005, but also for the economic health of the region.

"This is an economic-viability issue for the city and the region," said Laura Shubilla, president of the Philadelphia Youth Network, the lead agency in the consortium releasing the report. "The cost of not educating kids is high."

"It is the number that hits you, the sheer scale of it," said researcher Ruth Curran Neild, one of the report's authors. "They are in their mid-20s now... . You think about trying to support a family and getting on with your life without the basic credentials."

Drawing on the most comprehensive student data assembled here - or in any other large urban district - the report outlines in stark detail the scope of the district's dropout problem.

Between 48 and 54 percent of the students who started ninth grade between 2000 and 2005 graduated in four years. The rates improved to between 61 and 63 percent after six years. The rest dropped out without earning diplomas.

By tracking individual students over time and linking school records with data gathered by the University of Pennsylvania and from the courts and other city agencies, the research tells the district for the first time not only how many students are dropping out, but also who they are and how many others are on the verge.

The study found that Latino males have the lowest graduation rates, followed by African American males, Latino females, and African American females.

"I think this drove home the point that there's a crisis," schools chief Paul Vallas said yesterday.

He said the numbers confirmed the district's fears. He has long maintained the state's calculation of a 68 percent graduation rate for the city was inflated.

"The numbers have been going up," he said, "but they are still depressingly low."

Researchers confirmed that while the problem is serious and long-standing, it is not getting worse.

Robert Balfanz, the other author, said the Philadelphia findings were similar to the results of other recent studies that tracked individual students in Chicago, Los Angeles and Houston.

Two years in the making, the study, which drew on interviews with dropouts, is being released by Philadelphia Youth Transitions Collaborative, a consortium of local organizations and city agencies, including the district.

The collaborative is simultaneously unveiling Project U-Turn, a campaign aimed at galvanizing the district, city agencies, the business community, neighborhood groups, and parents to work together to keep students in school.

"When you're losing 50 percent of your population, if you are only basing school reform on kids who are in school, you are missing the challenge, or the opportunity, of educating all kids," Shubilla said. "So you've got to pay attention to who is left and figure out what it's going to take for that group to be able to graduate."

Among the findings:

Female students graduate on time at higher rates, and the gender gap was nearly 15 percentage points between 2000 and 2003.

Latino males have the lowest on-time graduation rate of any group in the city: 29.3 percent to 38.2 percent.

Students attending large neighborhood high schools in low-income areas are much more likely to drop out than students attending magnet or vocational schools.

No part of the city is immune from the problem. Even the more affluent neighborhoods of Chestnut Hill and Somerton had dropout rates between 1 and 5 percent during the 2003-04 year.

In any one year, about 8,000 students officially dropped out and an additional 5,000 spent so little time in school that researchers called them "near dropouts."

By examining students' records, the researchers discovered warning signs that most dropouts show years before they leave school.

"Kids don't just show up one day and decide they are not going to go back to school," Shubilla said. "Dropping out happens over a period of time."

Balfanz and Neild found that eighth graders who attend school less than 80 percent of the time and fail either English or math have a 75 percent probability of dropping out.

"When you see that happening, it's like a big red flag," Shubilla said.

In fact, 20 percent of those at-risk eighth graders in the study had stopped attending school by the end of ninth grade. And more than half never made it beyond 10th grade.

While researchers say the report has particular relevance for other urban districts with large numbers of low-income students, the eighth-grade dropout predictors could apply to other students as well.

Affluent suburban schools may have more resources to help students missing school and failing English or math, but Balfanz said: "Our data show if there is not intervention, they're in trouble."

Researchers say that knowing the warning signs can help schools provide the help that students need to keep on track.

"I think it's powerful," Neild said. "And it tells us kids are bringing issues with them before they get to high school."

Researchers found that many of the students who drop out later regret their decision but find that programs offering diplomas or general equivalency diplomas are full.

"For big cities, this is a very serious problem," Balfanz said. "We need a range of supports and an understanding that cities and schools are under-resourced for what they face."

This year, the legislature provided the district with $2 million for programs to keep students in school.

"The collaborative has clearly defined the problem," Vallas said. "In the process, it points us to solutions."

He said the district would move on recommendations that don't cost money and would need funding for others, such as increasing the number of alternative education spots from 2,800 to 5,000 by the 2008-09 academic year.

Vallas said he met yesterday with state Education Secretary Gerald Zahorchak, who told him Gov. Rendell was considering making dropout prevention a priority in next year's state budget.

The research was funded by the William Penn Foundation and other local and national foundations. Philadelphia was one of five cities that received money from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Carnegie Corp. of New York, and the Charles Stewart Mott Foundation.